ECRAN Modelling: Training Module 1 - Practical training on quantitative models and scenario development to be used to assess climate and energy policy options and to set emission targets

Date: 04-07.11.2014
Place: Skopje, Macedonia
Organizer: ECRAN Secretariat with EC TAIEX Unit

There is a need to start developing concrete climate policies based on full alignment with the EU Climate acquis and GHG emission reduction target setting. At present the absence of national or regional targets and roadmaps towards implementation of these targets hamper the development of robust climate policies in the region and thus low emission development. ECRAN could provide the platform to start a regional work on this topic. Climate policy related strategy development as well as fulfilling the reporting requirements of Annex I countries towards the UNFCCC, similarly to the EU acquis requires detailed modelling of emission scenarios on country level.

In most ECRAN beneficiaries there is experience in modelling aided scenario work, especially in the framework of the preparations of National Communications. However, in many cases this work has been designed and outsourced by international organisations or other external organisations without adequate involvement or ownership of the results by the countries. As such, the knowledge base within the administrations on modelling aided scenario work is limited.

The focus of the training will be on one specific modelling platform, the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) which has been developed by the Stockholm Environmental Institute. Of the 8 beneficiaries 6 are already using LEAP, and one (Kosovo*) has expressed interest in using it.

The training program will be organized into four modules to be conducted during one year.

Objectives of the workshop

The specific objective of the training program is to increase technical capacities in the countries to allow them to build technical capacities to carry out modelling of emission scenarios, with the purpose of enabling them to carry out emission scenario modelling work. The modelling aided scenario work will benefit countries by helping them meet their future EU and UNFCCC reporting requirements, and to form a rational position on national efforts contributing to the EU 2050 roadmap and the 2030 Framework, and may assist them by promoting evidence based planning in energy policy, including in the development of an energy strategy, energy efficiency action plan and renewable energy action plan.

The technical modelling skills can be used in one of two ways. If the chosen option is to carry out modelling work within the public administration the exercise will help to build technical capacity and provide a basis for future work. If the chosen option is to outsource modelling work, the exercise can help beneficiaries gain a better understanding of modelling work which will enable better communication with consultants, thereby ensuring that modelling is relevant to policymakers and that policymakers understand the limits of the work and are able to better interpret the results.

Expected results of the workshop

  • Enhanced technical capacity within the relevant ministries and institutions (in particular ministries responsible for climate, energy, transport, as well as national statistical offices) to implement specific policies and measures to converge with the EU climate change policy and selected EU legislation;

  • Strengthened regional network of experts.